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 #375849  by hrmwrm
 September 27th, 2018, 10:14 pm
a little top end shuffle, he'll fight the sec, get a little fine, and have a big laugh at the shorts he hurt badly. :mrgreen:
anyway, just came across this, which is inline with what i mentioned above about the islands. developing nations will be on the path to renewables too.
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... y-globally

interesting the change that storage has created. renewables are the cheaper choice, and storage removes the intermittent drawback of wind/solar.
i keep saying about the pipeline our pm wasted tax dollars on will be redundant in a decade anyways.
similar to a century ago as personal cars became affordable with the assembly line. :D
 #375851  by Countachqv
 September 28th, 2018, 7:39 am
The clean energy islands is a great idea. Very well suited environment and small ecosystem. As long as they can keep their head above water.
As to Tesla, I think the true seriousness and gravity of what just occurred must be appreciated for what it is.
The SEC is basically indicating that they want Elon out of Tesla because he broke insider’s rules and probably also due to his outlandish public behavior. We seem to have a transformation from Elon to Felon.

Also if you want to assess successful all around disruptors, compare Jobs, Bezos Gates acumens. Then you have Musk. One of them is just not fit to lead a company and it shows. He is too unfocussed and unruly.

This will end in one of the following ways:
1. Musk will be convinced to step down, take a technical role only (like CTO) to save face and a real business guy will fix this whole business model and production/distribution mess.
2. Tesla will be taken private by someone at a lower price than it is today
3. Musk (and the BOD made up of friends) will cling onto the company and let it die starving capital.

The current setup Tesla/Musk is no longer viable now from the Wall Street investment viewpoint. Technology is good but the business stinks. Opinions abound on that subject but again time will tell.
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 #375886  by hrmwrm
 September 29th, 2018, 9:42 pm
like i said, a shuffle at the top, a little fine, and he's still ceo in charge. wonder how much the shorts got hit with? he won't do it again, but he had his little vengeance on his pet peave. :mrgreen:

it's not just island nations. it's for nations just starting out. batteries make the difference to implementing a clean energy plan.
australia of all places is showing the viability of batteries, even without a lot of green sources. they'll make almost a third of their cost back by their first year in service.
and there are a few choices around. and it'll be the place to repurpose used EV batteries. there is even zinc/air batteries for grid storage.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/28/na ... d-storage/

plus flow batteries, which serve a grid type purpose best. prices are dropping for storage.
as i keep saying, if you put the money into storage that is put into emmision control, and how it's failed, storage would make renewables a continuous, reliable, cheap source of energy. wind, and especially solar, already out compete even nat gas.
future looks bright as the smog clears. :mrgreen:
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 #376750  by hrmwrm
 November 30th, 2018, 4:21 pm
tesla hit the 1000/day mark now. even if that's a one off day, it would mean they are near that amount sustainably. not bad from a year ago when they didn't have a thousand a week. (or month).
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-pro ... -day-musk/

and with the cost dropping, developing nations are the ones pushing the clean energy drive.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/28/de ... eadership/
nobody wants their energy with pollution now. clean energy is a cheap and viable solution in many places.

on a side note, i just signed up with my energy provider for a 3 year contract. $o.o3 a kwh, $3 gj for gas for 3 years. they call it their 3 for all.

i was on an open one before that seen my rates rise and fall all year. power is cheap, and gas is a good average. it was worth locking into.
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 #378018  by hrmwrm
 March 2nd, 2019, 6:11 pm
and they've finally done it. the $35K one is now available.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/01/wh ... to-market/

i didn't think it would be announced until late summer as the giga3 opens and starts producing some parts in china. so it's not too far behind the end of 2018.
should really step up demand now their delivering world wide on the model 3.
 #378600  by Countachqv
 April 11th, 2019, 2:06 pm
hrmwrm wrote: March 2nd, 2019, 6:11 pm and they've finally done it. the $35K one is now available.

i didn't think it would be announced until late summer as the giga3 opens and starts producing some parts in china. so it's not too far behind the end of 2018.
The giga is now on hold. More smoke and mirrors from Musk who is promoting himself as the master of deception.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... eid=YAHOOB
There will be decades before electrics are accepted by the public at large. Europe is ahead of USA simply because they are beating peole over the head with regulations and fees which would be tottall;y unacceptable in the USA.
I think Musk blew it. The holy grail would have been the commercial traffic, like Buses, trucks, taxis. That market is only $$ and cents with capital invesmtents on taps. Not so much for the average Joe The only saving grace for the consumer market was the gov subsidies of electric cars.
Musk made that splash about electric trucks and now crickets. He really need to put a real CEO in charge and get that thing off the ground. As they say in TX, all hat no cattles..
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 #378602  by hrmwrm
 April 12th, 2019, 3:35 am
gigafactory 3 is going all out.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-new-video/
production there is slated to start by the end of the year or before. that will be model 3 for asia and china. maybe he'll do europe from there too.
as for panasonic, it may have something to do with maxwell being brought in and their dry anode technology. no sense expanding right away if battery tech is changing, and if some production is moving to china.

semi is probably the next thing, as they are looking at dropping costs of shipping between factories. as their auto driving capabilities get better you'll have caravans of semi's all speed controlled and spooning down the highways soon. that tech has already been proven. that will cut energy costs. he's using the prototypes to deliver cars of late.

as for europe, no-one is beating over the head. the people are tired of unhealthy air and are demanding changes. regulation is the easiest way to do it. the largest cities are the reason emmision standards. nobody wants black fogs. or to die. it's why china is in such a rush to electrify their transportation. you can't make emissions tight enough to overcome a bunch of new fossil fueled cars on the road indefinately.
europerealizes this too. which is why they institute low emission zones and congestion charges.

it's like putting a whole in your ceiling and running a gas furnace for your heat. as long as it doesn't run too often, you might be alright. but in the middle of winter, you're probably gonna die.
rurally you don't come across these problems, which is why some people don't get it. just look at the skylines of any major city.
once density goes up and battery costs go down, an electric car will be much cheaper than gas even upfront. even right now if you commute alot, they are cheaper over their lifetimes.
 #378603  by Countachqv
 April 12th, 2019, 6:46 am
Well I would not trust this article too much. I would trust more news from market and economy tracking outfit like investor business daily , market watch, CNET and they all says the factory are on hold. So they must be. Now we'll see what this means later.

You said also : "as for europe, no-one is beating over the head. the people are tired of
unhealthy air and are demanding changes."
That is far from the truth as well. Remember for example that in France we are seeing riots not seen since 1968 to a point where I had to delay my trip there. It is bad. It started because the governement imposed a gas tax (another one) for the environment. Many people can't make ends meet there. Just follow what happened. People died. Now the movement is infitrated by right winger and the entire thing is a mess.
Dont forget also that cars are subject to a steep carbon tax, driving bans in some cities creating chaos like in Paris because the maire imposed driving bans and did not plan for more common transportation. Instead she shut down streets in Paris to "clean the air" and says to use bicycles. Good luck with that in winter. All of this after promoting diesel for decade!
I am not sure this is the way to go to make friend for the environement. People have to make a living and cant be treated this way for any reason. I am all for saving earth too but a society is an ecosystem where many people have to make it day to day and I am not sure they realized this over there before the riots.
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 #378611  by hrmwrm
 April 12th, 2019, 3:16 pm
panasonic has hit their 2020 target for annual production volume already. the fact that they want to hold off expansion for a bit doesn't really mean anything. as for tesla, there is lots of floor space still in the gigafactory 1. probably won't need to expand it more til they start model y production. but then elon doesn't elaborate as much since the sec troubles.
trumps tariffs are what pushed him to set up in china and change plans of expansion in the US.

many euro cities are seeing levels of pollution way above standards. so, if you don't regulate, how do you fix that problem? clean trasportation. but yes, they do have a decade of reversal to get through after promoting diesel.
but the manufacturers have shown that they were thumbing their nose at regulators with diesel emissions. now you have a decade of cars that should be banned. which is where the low emission areas are working towards. keeping heavily polluting cars out of congested areas, which make it much worse. with all the cost for the polluting vehicle, and the congestion charge, along with the low operating cost, an electric makes sense. or at least a phev, which can operate electrically in the low emission zone. fuel doesn't need to necessarily have a carbon tax.

norway is beyond the tipping point now. with a move to stop fossil sales by 2025, you're at a point of where if you decide to buy a fossil, it may have no value at trade in time 5 or so years from now.
fossil sales won't completely disappear in the next decade, but like in china, they are on a serious drop in demand annually. they are down 13% in china.
and electric has hit over 50% sales in norway.

and to get back to tesla, they have made a statement as to this short break in expansion.
A Tesla spokesperson has reportedly commented on Nikkei’s report:

“We will of course continue to make new investments in Gigafactory 1, as needed,”

Update: In a comment to Electrek, Tesla exapnded:

“We will of course continue to make new investments in Gigafactory 1, as needed. However, we think there is far more output to be gained from improving existing production equipment than was previously estimated.”
panasonic wasn't a part of the chinese expansion anyways. so for them to say they are drawing back in gig3 investment isn't saying much.
and it may have something to do with tesla trying to aquire maxwell and it's dry anode technology.
we don't yet know what that means towards tesla's future yet either, or it's implications for panasonic.

does tesla keep maxwell tech to itself, or does it share with panasonic and continue to have them produce the storage cells?
the shorts want to read something into it that probably isn't there.
after all, we've heard for the last decade that tesla was failing from one day to the next. instead of we should be proud someone wants to provide jobs and manufacture in america while others go overseas.
although a trade war is changing that decision too. if there were no tariffs, a switch to china might not have happened, or at least not for awhile yet. tariffs have been costly to america.
 #378612  by Countachqv
 April 12th, 2019, 6:50 pm
Well, of course Tesla will sugar coat their statement you outlined . Another statement from the Japanese financial markets is:
“Tesla and Panasonic have frozen plans to expand Nevada's Gigafactory, and Panasonic will also halt its investment in the Shanghai Gigafactory, the Nikkei Asian Review reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. Nikkei's report claims that it's currently too risky to make major investments like those mentioned, blaming the pause on both thin operating margins in the industry and EV sales that are "performing below plans."”
That statement is supported by the failure to meet latest car production forecasts by Tesla as earnings have shown, despite indeed having showed some growth last year. These forecasts have consitently come down. Panasonic is said by the Japanese Market to be losing money on that deal at the tune of 20 billions and that is a big reason they pull out for now. That makes sense to me as Panasonic and Tesla should be well aware of upcoming technology improvement and plan business accordingly, not just stop a plan because a new technology suddently is better. If so, that would make me even more nervous about the lack of foresight being displayed by Tesla.
The bottom line is the halt means they lose money and planned revenues and no one like decisions that lose money. However, everyone likes decisions that stop the bleeding.

As far as your statement
“trumps tariffs are what pushed him to set up in china and change plans of expansion in the US. “
I can sympathize with the tariff situation as this is a brutal way to get anything resolved and we all pay for it but I doubt Musk would build factories in china because of the tariffs. In fact that would be a terrible business long term decision since the tariffs imposition or their removal cannot be relied upon and pretty much at the whim of one man, the president.
I would say however that Musk is probably more concerned about not selling enough cars in countries like China due to cost and ship delays that he keeps blaming for the shortcomings.
Finally, as far as Europe or governments in general, I don’t like the pattern of regulation and imposition with complete disregard of the impact on the people. I left Europe because of that. Pollution is not the fault of the people but they are always punished and made to pay. This is fine for the ones who have a trust fund or a large bank account but not for the working stiffs who always wonder what next month will bring, let alone the next 20 years. Any policy must take this fact into the equation or it will not suceed or lead to extremes.
Electric cars are NOT the way to solve the issues in cities, pollution, Congestions, accidents etc... Common transportation is. Boosting common tranportation at affordable cost would not punish people it would help them. Yet the officials snub it and would rather take punitive actions, especially in Europe. That makes me wonder who has a financial vested interest in pushing diesel or electric cars or anything else that is not a public service such as trains, subways, buses. I believe that true environmentalist should push for better and more common transportations in cities not electric cars thta would only solve 1/2 of the problems.
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 #378613  by hrmwrm
 April 13th, 2019, 3:13 am
panasonic from some time back was not going to be a partner in the china factory. the fact that they state so as a pull back is a wondering. i mean, it's not a new thing. when musk announced GF3, it was said at that time that the batteries would be sourced from other sources. that was part of the deal to let tesla come in as a single company, instead of a partnership like other manufacturers.
it makes it out to be more than it is. as for losses at gf1, well, it's only been a bit more than a year of mass producing the new model 3 cylinders that go into teslas packs. it's gonna take a few years to get back your tooling and equipment costs. prety much no vehicle makes a profit or full payback of tooling and machines in the first year.

now, to china. it was the counter tariffs that made musk shift to producing in china rather than expand more here. tesla is already trying to cushion the tariff cost on american made cars going there. it was a more long term profitable stance.

and in europe, it is electric TRANSPORTATION of all kinds. not just cars. buses. delivery trucks. things can only change as alternatives become available. electric buses are getting more common and known now.
mercedes has buses and even delivery trucks on trial. dhl has made their small van. even the black uk cabs have gone electric.
theres electric mopeds and scooters, motorbikes. india has electric rickshaws(million or 2 of them).
china has a "LSEV", (limited speed electric vehicle) that sells at about the same rate as their standard electric vehicles.
there are a lot of personal options. and the trains that are deisel could be converted to electric. could even be battery electric for commuter trains. they don't travel very many miles.
and it's going to be a decade transition for the bulk and most infrastructure. it'll get there.
biggest thing would be getting storage density up, and cost down.

hydrogen could work, but you'd have to have huge solar farms to convert water to hydrogen. steam reformation of methane is just too expensive.
but for hydrogen, you still need an electric vehicle to use it in a fuel cell. so electric powered transportation is still the way to go.
but, yes, for crowded cities, cars are not the way to solve congestion. but as i said above, there are many forms of transportation that are better, whether human or electrically propelled.
but in many north american cities, you'd have to bring some of the populations back into city centers where it's usually only retail and business office while populations reside in distant suburbs.
that would help change choices and needs of transportation too.

anyway, could be a bit before we find out fully what is behind musks motives, as he doesn't openly share so much since his 420 tweet.
 #378629  by Countachqv
 April 14th, 2019, 5:42 pm
While we are waiting for Musk tweets to answers our questions about the factories, let's have some fun when he puts on his Customer Service hat on tweeter for none other than Sherill Crow in trouble. I guess that sets the tone for things to come! lol
Sheryl Crow

@SherylCrow
· Apr 3, 2019
Help! Who knows what to do when your @Tesla screen goes black and the reset doesn’t work? Return it and get your money back?? #Tesla #stuckinaparkinglot


Elon Musk

@elonmusk
Change your screen preference from night mode to auto
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 #378640  by hrmwrm
 April 15th, 2019, 6:25 pm
well, some info.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/14/tesla-gi ... elon-musk/
they're on hold til they maximize production with the equipment they have.
i think they put it on hold until they see if the present production will continue on for some time. there are a lot of advances in solid state. and with tesla dealing with maxwell, they may need to invest in a new line, or be ready to adapt the line to a different chemistry/material process. it would make the present battery obsolete.
seems more than just coincidental timing. it will make the chinese ones inferior, as they will have chinese sourced batteries. unless something changes there too.

and, yes, i could be totally wrong, but the timing does seem suspicious. but it makes sense that if you see a change within a year you'd stop investing in the present.
what they have isn't yet up to what it was supposed to be. or something along those lines.
well, on the 22nd he is going to have some announcement on self driving. whether it means a price change or full on demonstration will have to wait til then. :ohwell
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 #378647  by hrmwrm
 April 16th, 2019, 2:37 am
and newest video of gig3. it was a scraped field in february.
 #378694  by Countachqv
 April 19th, 2019, 7:44 am
Your article is a tech article based on what Musk tell them. The biggest difference in our opinions and interpretation of events on what is happening and what is next are 1) trust or distrust of Musk 2) sourcing of the information.
My source of info is typically financial when it comes to business, never just words from the CEO unless he is beyond reproach, like Buffet, Cook, Bezos Nadella, guys I know I could invest my money almost blindly because they have a trustworthy history in business.

Here is another financial view:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... eid=YAHOOB

Tech publications likes tech. They are interested in the latest tech development only and gloss over profit based rationales. They can be easily swayed in business opinions. Financials outfits (serious ones) not so much as it is about following the money makers and that is why when it comes to business I believe them to be closer to the truth. I came to this realization decades ago when RMBS was given to be the mega winner of memory chips with RDRAM superior tech and business was giving SDRAM the winner. The bottom line is that RDRAM tech was the best, was too expensive vs SDRAM and it lost to Micron and others, even if it was a lesser tech still improving on its problems. A long law suit was the façade to that fact. SRDAM and Micron won because they had the better business case for the market. Back then, I was on the wrong side believing the tech superiority was everything and I lost.
Musk is a “strange character”, to put it mildly, who I would never trust at face value. He has shown to manipulate on many occasions. This time it is about new technology to come disrupting long term plans and I cannot buy that. It is not how big bussiness is run from what I know. The pattern with Musk, is there is always a new shinny thing on the horizon to look at that will get eventually replaced with a new shinny thing when someone point troubles now.
The coming earning for Tesla are expected to be awful with losses again. To me, it is no surprises. I could be wrong of course but I look at the past patterns. We will see soon what the numbers are going to be and what direction they will point to.
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